Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: This report helps to identify key socioeconomic trends influencing the need and demand for the industry's products and services, and how these trends will influence marketing methods.

Description: This report summarizes a study that estimates the total economic burden of the opioid crisis in the United States from 2015 through 2018 and projects future costs of the opioid epidemic for 2019.

Description: The Study was designed to elicit reasons behind the participants’ judgments about the future course of the four variables. In the first round participants were asked to provide judgments about the value of the four variables in 2024 and the reasons behind their judgments. The four variables were 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa yield. In addition, they were asked to list future developments that could cause historical trends in the variables to change. Finally they were asked to express their views on how the judgmental process employed in this study might influence the use and interpretation of traditional actuarial e.g., stochastic, deterministic estimation processes or to aid in planning. The data were collated between rounds and in the second Round, the responses of the group were provided to the participants.

Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Appendix F is round 1 future developments from the Delphi report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all of the appendices.

Description: This paper provides a high-level review of climate models for the actuary and shows they are not impenetrable, intriguing the reader enough to seek out additional resources.

Description: This paper defines a concept of equivalence for profit standards. The central principle advanced is that the company should set prices on all its products to produce marginal profits that are equal in proportion to the products' marginal use of surplus. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: This research report on the effect of deflation or high inflation has six sections: 1. The first section provides background on inflation, describes some problems in measuring inflation, and explains some of its effects on an economy. 2. The second section reviews historical inflation rates. 3. The third section examines the effect of inflation or deflation on the property-liability and life insurance industries. 4. The fourth section proposes risk mitigation strategies for insurers to cope with either deflation or high inflation rates. 5. The fifth section describes a publicly available model that can be used to develop inflation/deflation projections under a regime switching format that can readily be adjusted to reflect current financial uncertainty. 6. The sixth section provides conclusions.

Description: This paper uses economic principles to analyze alternative recognition schemes for end-of-period retirement plan liabilities the candidates, using U.S. nomenclature, are the vested benefit obligation VBO, the accumulated benefit obligation ABO and the projected benefit obligation PBO.